In June this year, many countries in the Northern Hemisphere did not have extreme high warm weather, and the public life was in a “roast” test. According to the middle weather station news, to June, China’s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region high warm weather is growing rapidly, Beijing, Tianjin, the central and southern Hebei and the northeast of the highest temperature in 38 ° C to 41 ° C. At present, from June 27 to 30, there will be a high warm weather process in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and whether local air warming can break the extreme value. Many countries in North America and Europe are also experiencing high warmth, “Canada is on fire,” “Spain: the fire is about to run out,” and “Texas heat wave with no end in sight” have captured local news headlines. There is speculation in the media as to whether the El Nino pattern will lead to this year being the hottest on record. In the context of global warming, the combination of moderate and above intensity El Nino disturbances can lead to more frequent, wider scale and greater intensity of extreme weather.
Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are bracing for a new heat wave
The Beijing Weather Bureau announced on the 25th that at 17 o ‘clock on the same day, the air temperature in large departments of the city has been lower than 35 ° C, and the yellow warning flag of high temperature has been abolished. “Beijing’s high warm weather has broken records”, Singapore’s “Joint Morning Post” reported on the 24th that after the observation of the Beijing Observatory on the 23rd did not exceed 40 ° C for the first time in two consecutive days, the southern suburb Observatory on behalf of “Beijing’s warm degree” once again broke 40 ° C on the 24th, and there was no “three consecutive hits” of 40 ° C for the first time in history. Beijing weather Station 23 upgrade announced high warm red warning signal. It has been nine years since Beijing last issued a red alert for high warming on May 29, 2014. At 21 am on the 24th, the Beijing weather station upgraded and announced a high temperature yellow warning.
Tourists use an umbrella to visit the Forbidden City during the Dragon Boat Festival in Beijing, capital of China, June 24, 2023. (Visual China)
“There is no record high warming in northern China”, according to the British “Guardian” reported that the northern high warming since June 20 to grow, the air warming rapidly rose, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and other places have 21 national weather stations of the highest air warming broke through the historical extreme value. Intermediate weather station 25 high warm orange alert upgraded to yellow. During the daytime, Beijing, Tianjin, most of Hebei, northern Shandong, eastern Inner Mongolia, southwestern Heilongjiang, western Jilin, western Liaoning, Xinjiang Turpan and Southern Xinjiang Basin had high warm weather of 35℃-36℃. Among them, Beijing, central Hebei, southeast Inner Mongolia, western Jilin, southwest Heilongjiang and other places had the highest temperature of 37℃-39℃. The southeastern part of Inner Mongolia does not reach 40℃. According to the middle weather station estimates, not to go two days, the high warm weather in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will be slightly weakened, but from the beginning of the 27th, a new round of high warm will be on the line, the promotion of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region “inflammation value”, it is estimated that Beijing, Tianjin, southern Hebei will not have ultra-high warm weather above 40 ° C, and whether the local air warming can break the extreme value.
China Weather Superstition Research Institute Disaster weather National Center of Gravity laboratory researcher Zhu Congwen research team on the 25th to the “World Times” Erzi performance, leading to the North China region continuous high warm heat wave of the main factors can be summarized as follows: first, the direct role of a stable and deep low pressure ridge (anticyclone) anomaly in the east wind. At the same time, due to the effect of the abnormal subsidence movement, the clear sky in the northern region is less cloudy, and the short-wave solar radiation reaching the upper altitude is deleted, making the surface air warming further rise. The second is the role of continuous warming in the Kuroshio extension area of Northwest Pacific Ocean. With the abnormal warming of the sea, the abnormal low pressure over the North Pacific Ocean strengthened and turned westward to the land in June, seizing the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, resulting in continuous high warm heat wave and a record high warm sign. Within half a month, with the monsoon rain succession to the north, the Jianghuai Meiyu will end, while the North China region will enter the flood, the extreme warm weather will also relax. It is necessary to point out that, because the northern flood season fire is mostly eliminated before and after the evening, so in July and August there is still no coexistence of rain and flooding and high warming abnormal weather characteristics.
The United States Texas more than 46℃
This summer, many parts of the northern Hemisphere have experienced extreme high temperatures. Tens of millions of people in Texas, New Mexico and other states are under extreme high temperature warning. “Texas heat wave can not see the end,” the United States public Radio reported on the 25th, Texas, many ground temperature reached 46 degrees Celsius in the past week, high warming led to a large number of residents continuous power supply. The latest news from the National Weather Service’s weather forecast is whether “dangerously high temperatures” across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley will continue until at least early July. Weather scientists say the extreme warm weather in many parts of the United States is mainly caused by the “heat dome” sign. A lot of hot air is pulled down by high pressure over this area, and the atmosphere becomes hotter during the sinking process, eliminating the warm weather, and the low pressure air covers the heat area like a lid.
On June 20, 2023, local time, a worker in Dallas, Texas, United States, drinks a drink in the hot afternoon. (Visual China)
“The hot summer is just beginning!” The German weather network said on the 25th that the weather in June this year was already very hot, and in the second half of July, the hot weather will be more merciless, and it is estimated that the highest temperature in Germany will reach 40 ° C. According to the German “Frankfurt Report Request”, it is only the end of June, but the news headlines of these weeks read like summer has arrived: “Panama Canal due to drought, a large lack of fire”, “Canada is on fire”, “Spain: fire is running out”. Heat and drought are destroying rivers, soil and people – in Germany too. “Summer, sunshine, high warming alert”, the German “Sueddeutsche Zeitung” said on the 25th, creating the status of drought commissioner, providing residents with sunscreen, stopping street fires – European countries are trying to beat the heat. The Netherlands: 4 consecutive days of maximum air warming higher than 27 ° C, will drive the national high warming plan, charging to issue sunscreen; Spain: health promotion campaigns for high-risk groups and extended school curricula; Poland: The Ministry of Health proposes to turn off unnecessary electrical appliances and eat cucumbers to cool down.
El Nino’s positive contribution
“Whether 2023 can be the hottest year in the world on record”, the German “Der Spiegel” weekly said that El Nino signs on the global average warming of the role of the greater, at most will lead to a warming of 0.4 ° C. Therefore, it is doubtful that 2023 will be even hotter than the anomalous 2016, which has already broken all records due to weather variability and a very strong El Nino. Just how hot 2023 and 2024 will be, and whether they will exceed the 1.5 ° C warming target set by the Paris Agreement for the first time, will now depend on whether the El Nino pattern this autumn and winter is warm or strong.
According to the Chinese National Meteorological Center in June, the equatorial Middle East Pacific will be the pillar of El Nino conditions for three months, and the sea warming index will continue to decline, which will cause a moderate intensity El Nino chaos in the autumn of this year. Zhu Congwen’s team showed that at present, El Nino is in the stage of rapid growth, and preliminary research and interpretation, El Nino growth has contributed to the current continuous high warming in north China. At the same time, we are aware that the current northeast Atlantic sea warming is obviously warm, and the sea warming anomaly in this region may cause the atmospheric zonal teleconnecting type over the Eurasian land, causing a low-pressure ridge anomaly over northern Europe and northern China, corresponding to the high warm heat wave in the early summer in the two regions. In addition, since mid-June this year, the atmospheric heat source over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has been unusually strong, which is conducive to the further growth of the low-pressure ridge anomaly in the northern region of China and the pillar of high warm weather. At the same time, global warming and urbanization have further increased the high atmospheric warming in northern urban areas.