The latest CPI data for April shows that although inflation in the United States has fallen from the previous month, it is still at a 40-year high.
Deng Long, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, told New Zealand Economic and Social Media that inflationary pressure has brought panic to many people’s careers, and some enemies and employees will now basically store more goods at home, “in addition to the epidemic situation and the uncertainty of the situation, but also worry that they have not inherited falling prices, whether they can not buy.”
“You can’t buy two-thirds of the money for a shopping cart of groceries.”
According to the data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US CPI and PPI in March were 8.5% and 11.2%, respectively hitting a record high in the history of 40 years. In April, the year-on-year increase was 8.3% and 11%, respectively, and the inheritance was at a historical high level. By category, the prices of food, power, used cars and public transportation rose 9.4%, 30.3%, 22.7% and 21.8%, respectively.
High inflation is hurting the lives of ordinary Americans. Deng Long operates chain supermarkets in many places in the United States, and he told New Jingwei that from the supply situation of supermarkets, local goods in the United States, such as vegetables and meat, will be less expensive, and some seafood products may be affected by a lack of labor and other roles, and the price has been increased. For example, the price of a Boston lobster before the epidemic was within $10, and now the price is $20, “but the imported goods have generally risen by about 30% to 50%, and some goods have even increased several times.”
Amis, which has been based in the United States for ten years, also showed to the New Zealand Economic & Weft that prices are indeed rising, rising faster in the two years before the epidemic, and the increase is relatively stable in the last six months. Relative to the road, the main line is to sell imported goods in the supermarket increased significantly. “Before the epidemic, $100 could buy a shopping cart of career supplies in a rural supermarket in China, and then it could be made to buy 3/4 of the quality, and now it can be less than 2/3.”
Speaking of the price changes in real estate malls, Deng Long said that due to the role of the supply chain, the current construction data gap is large, many materials are basically sold out as soon as they flash, and the increase in construction costs has pushed up housing prices, only in Florida, compared to before the epidemic, housing prices have increased by more than 30%, and even doubled.
Lin Guang, President of the Zhejiang General Chamber of Commerce of the United States, was interviewed on the high inflation performance of the United States in August 2021. In a recent interview, he told New Zealand Economic & Social that compared with six months ago, the increase of basic commodities such as food has not changed significantly, and it is now about 0.3 times that of before the epidemic, but the increase in oil prices is very significant.
Wind data show that the price of gasoline in the United States on May 16 was $4.32 / gallon, a record high, up $1.39 from a year ago. Due to differences in local taxes and laws, the price of oil varies from state to state in the United States, and some states have exceeded $6 / gallon.
“Compared to six months ago, oil prices have gone from $4 or $5 to $6 or $7.” In the Forest Road of Los Angeles, if the oil price rises to more than ten dollars per gallon one day, it will not feel rare. Because compared with half a year ago, the state of mind has become “numb”, “there is a little loss of bias, I do not know what degree will go up.”
Lin Guang also mentioned that rising prices have a serious effect on the fixed wage earners, “they used to plan their monthly sales, but after a single income suddenly becomes high, they have to limit or eliminate other incomes.” And if there is a flash of unexpected income, it will be difficult to support, and many people are living on the edge of rescue.”
“Home stocks do not want to go out to sing”
Since 2021, the United States has overtaken money and the epidemic has caused supply chain disruptions, and global inflation has remained high. The conflict between Mongolia, Russia and Ukraine further lowered the inflation level. Although the Federal Reserve started to raise interest rates sharply in March this year, the current data interpretation has not been significantly improved. Leading the way, U.S. leader Joe Biden said inflation remained uncomfortably high and that improving inflation was his top economic priority. High inflation, in addition to lowering the daily life costs of ordinary residents in the United States, also puts pressure on business operations, especially those that operate import businesses in the United States.
“Rising prices have pushed up the cost of life, and workers have higher demands for wages, and the labor shortage has not slowed down.” Deng Long mentioned that now large enterprises are grabbing people, but small enterprises and conservative properties will be more difficult to recruit. Florida’s previous minimum human scale is less than $11 an hour, before the epidemic to the minimum human may be able to hire people, but now the hourly wage of $15 is difficult, “basic young people are not hired, are hired some of the retirement or retirement after the elderly people go back to rest.”
Lin Guang mentioned a change in the interview on the lack of labor, “Before going out to dinner to tip the clerk is according to its position, the amount is about 10%-20%, but now as long as people are not scolding you, at least to give 20%.” And we are also very humble to the clerk, because we know that the boss is also difficult to recruit people, you and the boss praise, people are also very inconvenient to the clerk.”
Lin Guang also mentioned that the restaurant that I often went to before, has not been able to eat in the restaurant until now, only whether it has been sold out, “because there is no one to please, please a person is not enough or not skilled, it is better to directly sell out.”
“Although the unemployment rate in the United States is not high from the data, and the return of workers after the ban of the subsidy strategy is flashed, it is still difficult to recruit people.” Because the shortage is not skilled workers, but general workers.” Lin Guang mentioned that it is like a restaurant clerk assistant who will not take up his post after simple training, but there is a shortage of such workers.
Deng Long showed that the lack of labor force has not been managed, one point is the role of the epidemic, many people are not willing to go out for safety quality, and the other is that “many people are hot in the stock market at home, the epidemic two or three years, the US stock market and digital coin shopping malls are very strong, if some people can buy some stocks to make profits, they will not go out to volunteer.” There may come a time when the economy or the stock market has a major disruption and these people will be happy to go back to the unemployment market.”
Lin Guang also mentioned that it is true that some ordinary residents in the United States have added time and money to the stock market, and some people are the role of online office during the Mongolian epidemic, and many people will now choose not to go out and rest, and start selling colors on the website at home for approval.
The Chinese businessmen interviewed by Sino-Singapore Economics & Weft generally expressed that the lack of labor force has improved the cost of human capital. At the same time, in previous years, the logistics consumption that has not seen a significant decline has pulled down the operating cost, forcing the price of products to fall, thereby migrating to consumers.
“Before, the price of a single container was $12,000 to $15,000, the highest rose to $20,000, and now it is down to $8,000 to $9,000, but for the import of goods, the cost is still high.” Lin Guang also mentioned that there is also a shortage of truck drivers specializing in handling freight, which further aggravates the supply chain and creates a vicious circle.
Talking about the current pace of response, Deng Long performance, for production operators, now this situation, is not a good way to answer, the more appropriate way is only to point to the right, “although the container price has fallen, but still very high, after the return of the goods cost is higher, only after the return of the cost of sale.” If freight rates go up, supply chains go up, and tariffs go down, the cost goes up, and so does the selling price of the product.”
When will inflation lose its effective slowing? From the month-on-month growth rate, the United States April CPI(consumer price index) year-on-year growth rate fell from 8.5% last month, but still higher than the market expected 8.1%, a number of institutions in the research report pointed out that high inflation in a short time to lose control of I am afraid it is not easy.
Industrial Bank of China’s chief economist Cheng Shi in an interview with Mengzhong Zhongwei, the United States inflation data flashed signs of relaxation before the program, but it is difficult to join the channel, there is no greater chance of a longer period of continuous operation in a range higher than the moderate degree. Quality to the global supply chain tension, commodity prices, power supply and food supply difficulties, the crux of the choice of inflation has not been substantially relaxed, the global (including the United States) inflation pressure in this year will be difficult to fundamentally slow down, “stagflation” is still an important trend in the world. This year, the US inflation data is difficult to return to the normal range below 2%, as the consequences of the Fed’s compression strategy disappear, inflation pressure is unlikely to ease next year.